Six individuals stand in a dock, accused of a plot to topple the Presidency of Bola Ahmed Tinubu. The mainstream press is running its usual script. They talk about the "sanctity of the ballot box" and the "dark shadows of military rule." It is a comfortable, predictable narrative. It is also entirely wrong.
What we are witnessing is not a genuine existential threat to the Nigerian state. It is a masterclass in political optics. When a government struggles with triple-digit inflation in essential commodities and a currency that looks like a falling knife, it needs a villain. It needs a bogeyman. This "coup plot" serves that purpose perfectly.
The Mirage of the Military Threat
The most exhausted trope in West African political commentary is that the military is perpetually waiting in the wings to seize power. This ignores the shift in how power actually functions in the 21st century. I have spent decades analyzing power structures in sub-Saharan Africa, and the reality is that the Nigerian military's top brass are the greatest beneficiaries of the current civilian order.
The modern Nigerian general is more of a corporate executive than a revolutionary. They manage massive budgets, oversee security contracts, and navigate a complex patronage network that relies entirely on the status quo. To suggest that a handful of individuals—many of them civilians or lower-level operatives—could dismantle this multi-billion-dollar apparatus is a fantasy.
The competitor articles focus on the legal charges: treason, conspiracy, inciting mutiny. These are heavy words designed to signal strength. But look closer at the "evidence" usually presented in these cases. It often boils down to WhatsApp groups, poorly coordinated protests, and disgruntled rhetoric. If every group of Nigerians complaining about the government in a private chat was a "coup plot," the prisons would be at 500% capacity.
Why the State Needs Treason
Security is the ultimate political currency. When the Tinubu administration charges people with treason, it achieves three specific goals that have nothing to do with national safety:
- Dominance over the Narrative: It shifts the conversation from the cost of living to "national stability." It is much harder to protest against the removal of fuel subsidies when the state suggests that dissent is a gateway to a military takeover.
- Consolidation of the Intelligence Apparatus: High-profile treason cases justify massive increases in surveillance spending and the expansion of the "security state." It gives the Department of State Services (DSS) a blank check.
- Fragmenting the Opposition: By labeling radical dissent as "treasonous," the state forces mainstream opposition leaders to distance themselves from any grassroots movement. It effectively kills the momentum of street-level activism.
I’ve seen this play out in dozens of administrations across the continent. You manufacture a threat to justify a crackdown, and in the process, you make yourself look like the only thing standing between the people and chaos.
The Inefficiency of the Plotters
Let’s talk about the mechanics of a real coup. Historically, successful African coups require the "Triple Crown": control of the capital city's communications, the support of the elite guards, and immediate international recognition (or at least neutrality).
The six individuals currently facing charges have none of these. To call this a "plot to overthrow" is a linguistic stretch that would make a yoga instructor jealous. It is more accurately described as "radical venting."
The state’s reaction is disproportionate because the reaction is the point. The theater of the courtroom—the heavy security presence, the stern-faced prosecutors, the dramatic reading of the charges—is a performance for an audience of 200 million people. It says: We are in control. Do not test us.
The Real Coup is Economic
While the media chases the sensationalist tail of military takeovers, the actual "overthrow" of the Nigerian people is happening at the pump and the grocery store. The true threat to Nigeria’s stability isn't six people in a courtroom; it is the systemic erosion of the middle class.
The "lazy consensus" says that democracy is fragile because of soldiers. I argue that democracy is fragile because of hunger. When you charge people with treason for protesting economic hardship—under the guise that they are "secretly" plotting a coup—you aren't protecting democracy. You are suffocating it.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) doesn't lie, even if politicians do. When food inflation hits the levels we are seeing in 2026, the social contract isn't just frayed; it's gone. A government that prioritizes treason trials over market stability is a government that has lost its way.
The "People Also Ask" Fallacy
People often ask: "Will there be a coup in Nigeria?"
The honest, brutal answer is: Why would there be?
The elites have perfected the art of the "civilian coup." They have learned that you don't need tanks in the street to control the resources of the state. You just need to control the electoral commission and the courts. The military knows this. The politicians know this. The only people who don't seem to get it are the journalists reporting on these treason trials as if they were a legitimate threat to the republic.
If you want to understand power in Nigeria, stop looking at the men in uniforms and start looking at the men in agbadas. The military isn't the rival of the political class; they are partners in a joint venture. These trials are just the cost of doing business—a way to keep the public distracted while the real machinery of the state grinds on.
The Risk of the Playbook
There is a downside to this contrarian view that I must acknowledge. When a state cries wolf too many times—when every major protest is labeled a "coup plot"—the word "treason" loses its teeth.
Imagine a scenario where a genuine, high-level tactical threat actually emerges. If the government has spent years using the DSS to harass bloggers and small-scale activists under the label of "treason," the public will simply roll their eyes when the real thing happens. They are burning their most potent rhetorical fuel on small-time targets.
This is a dangerous game. It creates a vacuum of credibility. If the state says these six people were going to overthrow the government, and the public sees only six desperate citizens, the state looks weak, not strong. They look paranoid.
Stop Falling for the Script
We need to stop treating these announcements from the Ministry of Information as if they are gospel. A "charge" is not a "conviction." A "plot" is often just a "conversation."
The competitor's article wants you to feel a sense of dread about the stability of Nigeria. It wants you to feel grateful that the authorities "caught" these people in time. I am telling you to look at the timing. Look at the economic indicators. Look at the lack of evidence.
This isn't about security. This is about silencing the noise.
The state isn't afraid of a coup. It’s afraid of a population that is no longer afraid of the state. These trials are an attempt to re-inject that fear.
Don't give it to them.
